Monday, February 10, 2025

Rigathi Gachagua: Kenya’s Political Wildcard and His Rift with Ruto


Rigathi Gachagua, a prominent Kenyan politician, emerged as a significant figure during the 2022 general elections when William Ruto selected him as his running mate. However, his political trajectory has since shifted, marked by a growing rift with President Ruto and increasing opposition from within the government. Gachagua’s influence remains strong, particularly in the Mount Kenya region, where he has positioned himself as a vocal advocate for the community's interests.

Early Life and Career

Born in 1965 in Nyeri County, Rigathi Gachagua pursued his education at the University of Nairobi, where he earned a degree in political science and literature. His early career saw him serve as a District Officer, gaining administrative experience before moving into national politics. He later worked closely with President Uhuru Kenyatta as his personal assistant, an experience that provided him with valuable insights into Kenya’s political landscape. During this period, he was deeply involved in high-level decision-making processes, further honing his political acumen.

Entry into Politics

Gachagua transitioned into elective politics in 2017 when he won the Mathira Constituency parliamentary seat. As a Member of Parliament, he gained a reputation for his outspoken nature and strong advocacy for economic empowerment, particularly among small-scale traders and farmers. His alignment with William Ruto, then Deputy President, further solidified his position as a key player in the Kenya Kwanza coalition. His ability to mobilize the grassroots, particularly in the Mount Kenya region, made him a formidable force within the alliance.

Political Evolution and Rift with Ruto

Gachagua’s selection as Ruto’s running mate was a strategic move aimed at securing the crucial Mount Kenya vote. The Kikuyu community, Kenya’s largest ethnic group, played a decisive role in the election outcome. His ability to rally support within this bloc and counter opponents like Uhuru Kenyatta, who backed Raila Odinga, proved instrumental in Ruto’s victory.

However, his relationship with Ruto has soured since their election, with Gachagua openly criticizing the President’s policies and governance style. In a recent public address, he stated, “We cannot continue to be blind followers while our people suffer. The promises made to Mount Kenya must be honored.” He has accused key government officials of sidelining him in decision-making processes and prioritizing their own interests over those of the people. Additionally, he has strongly opposed alleged corruption deals involving government contracts, including controversial agreements linked to foreign investors such as the Adani Group.

Gachagua’s declaration that Mount Kenya will no longer support Ruto in 2027 has sent shockwaves through the political landscape. His growing defiance indicates a potential realignment ahead of the next general election, fueling speculation about his next political move and the party he may use as his platform. Reports have also emerged that President Ruto allegedly offered Gachagua Ksh 2 billion to resign from his position, further deepening the political tensions between the two leaders.

Challenges and Controversies

Gachagua has faced multiple controversies, most notably corruption allegations. In 2022, he was accused of money laundering involving over Ksh 12 billion, a case that was later dropped after his election as Deputy President. While his critics argue that these allegations expose deep-seated corruption, his supporters view them as politically motivated attacks aimed at weakening his influence.

Beyond legal battles, Gachagua’s blunt and confrontational political style has earned him both praise and criticism. His open disagreements with fellow government officials and his uncompromising stance on key issues have sparked tensions within government circles. Some analysts believe his approach is necessary to challenge the status quo, while others question his ability to navigate the complexities of national leadership.

Popularity and Public Perception

Rigathi Gachagua's popularity varies across different regions in Kenya. A national survey conducted by TIFA Research in October 2024 revealed that while 59% of respondents in the Mount Kenya region rated his performance favorably, only 27% from other regions shared this positive view. His embrace of the nickname "Riggy G," coined by Ivy Chelimo, further boosted his visibility, especially among the youth. Gachagua acknowledged the moniker, stating, "I'm amazed that our creative young people have given me a nickname... And I don't think it's a bad name."

However, his impeachment in October 2024 on charges including corruption and promoting ethnic divisions has impacted his national standing. While he retains significant support in his home region, his popularity in other parts of Kenya has been adversely affected. In terms of public awareness, the TIFA survey indicated that 78% of Kenyans were aware of the impeachment efforts against him, with awareness being higher in the Mount Kenya region at 86%.

Despite the controversies, Gachagua has cultivated a loyal following, especially among voters who see him as an unfiltered, grassroots leader willing to speak out against the establishment. His ability to command attention and challenge powerful figures in government has made him both a political enigma and a formidable force in Kenya’s political landscape.

Political Future and 2027 Elections

With mounting tensions between Gachagua and Ruto, speculation is rife about his next political move. There are strong indications that he may break away from Kenya Kwanza and chart his own political path, possibly leading a Mount Kenya-based party in the 2027 elections. Reports suggest that he has been in discussions with opposition figures such as former Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni and other disgruntled Mount Kenya leaders about forming a new political alliance.

Another possibility is that he aligns with the Azimio la Umoja coalition, potentially working alongside Raila Odinga in a bid to counter Ruto’s growing influence. Alternatively, he may revive an existing party, such as The Service Party (TSP), which was previously led by Mwangi Kiunjuri, to consolidate his support base in the region.

As he navigates this uncertain terrain, Gachagua’s ability to maintain his influence in Mount Kenya and expand his national appeal will determine his viability as a presidential or kingmaker candidate in 2027.

Ruto’s Chances in Mount Kenya

President William Ruto’s prospects in Mount Kenya remain uncertain, with several key factors influencing his standing in the region:

  1. Gachagua’s Influence – If Gachagua successfully consolidates support in Mount Kenya, Ruto’s influence could weaken significantly.

  2. Economic Performance – The rising cost of living and unfulfilled economic promises may erode Ruto’s support in the region.

  3. New Alliances – Ruto’s outreach to former Uhuru allies like Mutahi Kagwe and William Kabogo suggests he is working to counter Gachagua’s growing influence.

  4. Raila Factor – A potential alliance between Ruto and Raila Odinga could reshape voter preferences in Mount Kenya.

  5. Alternative Candidates – If a strong Mount Kenya presidential candidate emerges, the region’s loyalty could shift away from Ruto.

As 2027 approaches, Ruto will need to rebuild trust and secure tangible economic gains for Mount Kenya if he hopes to maintain his grip on the region. His ability to neutralize Gachagua’s growing defiance will be a key factor in determining his electoral prospects.

Conclusion

Rigathi Gachagua’s political journey has been marked by resilience, strategic maneuvering, and controversy. From a district officer to a key player in national politics, his rise reflects the evolving political landscape of Kenya. With his recent fallout with Ruto and his growing influence in the opposition space, Gachagua remains a figure to watch as the country gears up for the 2027 elections. Whether he chooses to run for president or assume the role of a kingmaker, his next move will shape the future of Kenyan politics.

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